Just a general COVID19 thread - dont open if you not interrested in RL issues

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King of Worms
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Just a general COVID19 thread - dont open if you not interrested in RL issues

Post by King of Worms » Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:57 pm

I hate to be that person, but more ideas and opinions are always good, right? :lol:

So

Just a few things I have on my mind currently:
- Economic impact possibly starting another "2008-like" crisis - even if the virus is mostly contained in China

- IMO Unless unexpected things happen (the virus cancels itself basically, same as SARS did) this will spread to most of the countries around the world, because of the exceptional infectivity and up to 20 days asymptomatic period plus huge migration of people around the world

- If the China cant stop it in their country using the hardcore measures (and they can do it because its a very authoritarian regime and the voice of public is worthless) - then the rest of the democratic countries cant stop it as well? Latest numbers suggest that all the measures china implemented reduced the R0 from 2,9 to 2,3 which is not enough to stop the spreading as it needs to get bellow 1

- 15% of infected have respiratory issues which require special medical HW for you to get thru it and that HW is very limited.

- Even if this is not so dangerous, people are already scared, to there will be a panic when the virus hits each country - this panic will result in ppl buying all the food off the shelves, so there will be shortage afterwards for at least few weeks, until it stabilizes?

So my guess is, that basic prepping is in place - just to be on a safer side - even if all what will happen is just a panic. I plan to stock on food, just because I expect the panic as described. I consider this to be a good behavior towards the others who decide to not prepare. Because if the panic starts, it will be one less person making a run for a food.

Rice, beans, salt, sugar, tea... just basics. 1 - 2 months supply. Its really cheap, and not a big amount of food needed.

Im not here to spread fear, just speaking my mind. I never reacted to any virus alerts, but I consider this to be different case possibly. And I really hope Im wrong and I will just make a idiot of myself :) But... stocking a few bags of rice is always a good idea no matter what.

The situation can change and Im aware of it, in one month, the virus might be over and nothing will happen.

The economic impact is inevitable tho IMO.. as its already in progress. Even if it ends in 1 month, which is best case scenario and wishful thinking. In short - this will rise the prices up and it will lead to increased unemployment IMO. But we got thru this many times, so I dont really mind. I expected this to happen anyway, virus or not...

Opinions and constructive discussion is welcomed
Be well, stay safe :)

Ommamar
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Re: Just a general COVID19 thread - dont open if you not interrested in RL issues

Post by Ommamar » Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:33 pm

I don't think it will be over in a month but I can see the media not focusing on it unless there is a huge sudden rise in confirmed deaths.

I think China's focus is to suppress as much information as possible in the future not necessarily reaching a solution to the problem.

This could be utilized by the US particularly if Trump is reelected one of his major things he wants to happen is for the US to become more of a producer. I agree that economically there will be a huge impact on China as they have to be losing production ability as even people who are not sick would prefer to stay self quarantined in their homes. I could see this creating a need vacuum that Trump has been trying to create through trade tariffs, the result is likely to be painful as companies try to adjust that vacuum.

I have no doubt it will become more widespread as it is already spread to several different countries and the virus has the ability to survive outside a host much longer then any other virus that has occurred in the past. So I could see cases popping up in a fairly large way in different places for quite some time.

As to the end result I think it is likely disease that will take out the human race as there will come a point where we have created a situation where the vaccine resistance strains will out run are ability to deal with them which will be are demise. I expect that is some time off but I have no doubt we will reach that point.

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Re: Just a general COVID19 thread - dont open if you not interrested in RL issues

Post by King of Worms » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:10 pm

I agree with the majority of your post, one of the points where we differ is that I dont believe any virus can take out whole human race due to the huge variety of our genome and mutations inside that.

Its very early and lots of data is missing. What would be good to know is for example, do the people who recover have any side effects manifesting laters.
More importantly, is there a immunity/resistance buildup if you overcome the illness, or you can catch it the next day?

No doubt Chinas official numbers are not based on the real situation because:

- they cant even diagnose all the ppl
- milions of ppl are on lock down at home, some of em possibly ill or already dead
- they try to prevent panic (good move)
- its better to pretend you are not ill, because if they suspect you are, you get moved to a "hospital" where you just lie and its just a fancy name for a "storage of ill ppl"

Still, those are the only numbers we have from there
Here u can see the global numbers, I keep my eye on the Singapore - high end high tech democracy. Their results are the best any modern city can expect
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

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Re: Just a general COVID19 thread - dont open if you not interrested in RL issues

Post by Jay_H » Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:45 pm

I'll admit my ignorance on the subject -- the only things I've seen about it are varying Facebook posts -- but I will recall in 2009 the outbreak of something purportedly terrible called Swine Flu (H1N1). We were told that the infection rate would be 60%, mortality would be 20%, a national emergency was called, the whole world panicked, and so on. By 2010 the death toll worldwide from eight months of swine flu was... 16,931. And since Swine Flu there's been Bird Flu, the 2013-2016 Ebola outbreak, Zika virus, and many others which have barely made a dent in ordinary world functions in the aggregate.

I could be wrong this time, and it could be the plague that wipes out the earth. That can certainly be the case. But I'm much more willing to bet that this is yet another "fear plague." Try going onto the WebMD site (or many others) and searching for symptoms regarding trembling hands: you'll come out diagnosed with 60 different disorders ranging from diabetes to Parkinson's disease.

Health is one of the most fear-riddled aspects of human life in this age. Press and other organizations gain great amounts of money from website clicks based on fear (as they do for anger). If you see a big uprising in fear-related news which later deflates into nothing, you are permitted to begin suspecting their motives.
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Re: Just a general COVID19 thread - dont open if you not interrested in RL issues

Post by mikeprichard » Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:16 pm

As Jay_H noted, although of course it's horrible whenever people die of disease as has happened here and as happens en masse every day in central Africa, SE Asia, and other places (though those incidents don't make the global news), the media has done much with this and many other prior outbreaks (swine flu, SAR, etc.) to misinform and overstate the likely potential impact of these outbreaks, because fear sells. Also, it's incredibly unlikely that any virus/other disease will completely wipe out the human race. We're much more likely to finish that job on our own. Cheers.

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Re: Just a general COVID19 thread - dont open if you not interrested in RL issues

Post by Ommamar » Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:19 pm

In most democratic developed countries I agree the media has a habit of over hyping situations where in socialist/communist states the tendency seems to be to suppress the information regarding a situation. Which exacerbates things as KoW pointed out people have a tendency to supply answers that will keep them out of the authorities awareness that don't reflect what is really going on.

If you look at history both recent and from ages path disease seems to run in cycles where epidemics occur greatly effecting communities that are either solved by science or the people who are capable of resisting the disease reproduce enough to allow the community to survive the disease.

The same type of situation is happening with viruses who can withstand the vaccines and disinfectant sprays that are in common use. So when we use something that kills 99% of germs we create a situation where that 1% that isn't killed reproduces passing on the ability to resist the steps we use to eradicate the threat. Those numbers are just an example if they where the true numbers it is likely we would have already been overwhelmed.

Of course you all might be correct that we will manage to kill ourselves of in some other manner before it ever gets close to the point where are technology won't be enough to withstand the new diseases that seem to pop up every 10-12 years.

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Re: Just a general COVID19 thread - dont open if you not interrested in RL issues

Post by King of Worms » Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:20 am

Agreed with Jay that in the past the virus panic propelled by media was always BS - and I never jumped on it, as stated in my opening post.

I just assume that the situation is different now.

- There is no media hype no more
- China tries to manipulate the numbers down, all we know for sure is there is 400 000 000 ppl in quarantane. Why so? Hmm. Why they totally cripple their economy with this move? Just to scare others and spread panic? Things dont add here to me...
- Why they are not able to contain the virus, even when they employ the hardest of measures?

Also, the virus has different properties than the previous ones, making it appear more dangerous
- up to 28 days asymptomatic state, u look fine, feel fine, spread the virus around you
- 15% have respiratory issues requiring specialized medical HW to survive
- the virulence and speed of virus onset is unprecedented, even with the scaled down numbers from china

As stated before, I hope Im wrong and Im open to all ideas, even those who say I over react :)

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Re: Just a general COVID19 thread - dont open if you not interrested in RL issues

Post by L57 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:58 pm

Coronavirus is still far less deadly than seasonal flu epidemics, mortality from industrial accidents, and many more. I see no reason to worry (yet).

Just to get it straight, for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_in_China

A 2015 study from the non-profit organization Berkeley Earth estimated that 1.6 million people in China die each year from heart, lung and stroke problems because of polluted air.

And coronavirus... just 1400 citizens or so?

Of course, authorities care much about this because it's new and nobody could predict how things will develop. Are government measures good indicative how serious this threat, however? Can't say for sure. The problem here is that we cannot rely on the law of the excluded third.

I'm not a sinologist but I read opinions of those who study the modern political system of China. As far as I understand, thanks to the emergency, the regional authorities received extra powers in their provinces and were able to halt important staff decisions of the central authorities, which were planned this year. Simply put, excessive government measures could be partially influenced by inner political struggle. Work-to-rule kind of thing which has been used by local and regional bureaucrats in their own interests.

It's rather speculation, and I do not call for conspiracy theories, but still want to remind that the real world circumstances are quite complex things and there could be non-obvious element in it. At least we know for sure there are internal clashes in China for many years between different parts of elite (hence repressions and arrests of senior officials of last years).

Emergency state actually implies political consequences, especially given the not-so-stable Chinese system, so government over-reacting may simply reflect some underlying processes which we don't clearly understand. Hence it's hard to conclude anything about real epidemiological risks from that.

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Re: Just a general COVID19 thread - dont open if you not interrested in RL issues

Post by King of Worms » Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:54 am

Different opinions than mine are welcomed as well :)

I dont think this is even remotely comparable to flu, because the flu doesnt induce the pneumonia in 15% of the cases, it doesnt have up to 28 days of asymptomatic state, is not as virulent, doesnt stay on a surface for 5 days etc - but it doesnt matter now.

I like the idea you presented that the underlying political process might be the reason for the events in China.

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Re: Just a general COVID19 thread - dont open if you not interrested in RL issues

Post by jimfcarroll » Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:32 pm

While we don't know for sure yet, the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) is ~25 times higher with COVID19 than the seasonal flu and on par with the deadly Spanish flu pandemic of 1918.

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