Just a general COVID19 thread - dont open if you not interrested in RL issues

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King of Worms
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Re: Just a general COVID19 thread - dont open if you not interrested in RL issues

Post by King of Worms »

Just some numbers about the economic impact on the electronics markets:

"TrendForce issued a report on the expected impact of the Corona / Covid-19 virus on various technology markets. Companies in China, in particular, are forced to reduce or stop their production, which of course has consequences for the availability and prices of end products"

https://www.guru3d.com/news-story/the-e ... ustry.html

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Re: Just a general COVID19 thread - dont open if you not interrested in RL issues

Post by King of Worms »

Foreign companies cant get their goods from China now, be it products or materials.

So naturally, they are looking for new sources, because the business relies on this supply - no supply, no business.

This is bad news for china, because once the customer is gone and has a new source and contracts, its very hard to get him back.

This can be the end of one era, where everything was produced in China, and I very much hope so, because its just a insanity we got used to!

So this can be a good outcome from this all.. at least something possitive :)

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Re: Just a general COVID19 thread - dont open if you not interrested in RL issues

Post by L57 »

Finally detailed official report about COVID19 from China.

https://github.com/cmrivers/ncov/blob/m ... VID-19.pdf

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Re: Just a general COVID19 thread - dont open if you not interrested in RL issues

Post by King of Worms »

Thanks for the update, interresting read for sure, but its the same numbers they stated before, and there is a concern about the validity which still stands.

- they were not able to test everyone
- lots of ppl are at home quarantine (and nobody knows if they are even alive let alone healthy)
- its a communistic report.. never trust a communist (I was born in a communistic country, I know it)
- they are in a "avoid public and economic panic" mode, and I support that to a extent

But indeed, there are some new data there, not about the total numbers, but about the stuff like age, severity of issues and thats good to have!

The curves seem to be stabilizing, theres no exponentional growth in the CHINESE numbers. Thats good - if thats true.

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Re: Just a general COVID19 thread - dont open if you not interrested in RL issues

Post by Ommamar »

Here is an interesting video of two people in Shanghai talking about the situation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24MjopgNvFg

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Re: Just a general COVID19 thread - dont open if you not interrested in RL issues

Post by King of Worms »

Well my country is in panic mode and we have ZERO cases. Thats exactly what I have expected and prepped for. Yesterday I was giving my car for a service, so I wanted to make a bit bigger shopping for food for a week. The shopping mall was raided. Today is friday and thats when usually ppl buy the most. I dont even want to know how it looks there atm...

Plus the delivery systems.. they say ppl were ordering like 600kg of food in one buy. So they now limited it to 50kg max per order.

Im stocked in a sensible manner, stocked my father and his family and Im just home on antibiotics, which suck. But at least I dont have to go to the panicking hordes trying to get some food.

So the bottomline is, its as I expected, the panic is the worse part of this issue.

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Re: Just a general COVID19 thread - dont open if you not interrested in RL issues

Post by Ommamar »

There have been other virus situations in the past 20-30 years but I can't think of any that had gotten such a world wide panic reaction. Counties closing down schools and economic infrastructures while they quarantine huge sections of the population. Debate on cancelling word wide events such as the Olympic games while reports of cases continue to spread into countries where it hadn't been reported before released daily.
What I get from that is all these steps and precautions are ineffective as coranas virus continues to display classic virus behavior by continuing to find hosts. Where I am it is mentioned in conversation but I haven't seen to much hording or panic about it occurring which is good but I still foresee shortages occurring in the future as the ripple effect of large scale shutdowns world wide reach this area. People criticize leaders of countries for speaking about the economic effect claiming it is callous but I think it is a byproduct that will have a long lasting effect that will change how businesses do things in the future. While it is necessary to figure out a solution of how to vaccinate and contain the virus there are many things for them to worry about after that has occurred.

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Re: Just a general COVID19 thread - dont open if you not interrested in RL issues

Post by King of Worms »

The economic effect will be huge, because even without this virus, we were close to a big recession, which was only delayed by the central banks printing shitloads of money. So I expect this virus to be the catalyst for the economy to shift into that recession. Plus China is the "factory of the world" and has been compromised. Full effects are to be seen in the near future.

I think now the best relevant informations about the virus spread we have from South Korea. They have very good health system, they do good job trying to contain and they publish real numbers. So their progress will somehow show us what to expect.

Nobody will make such a drastic moves as China did, because its not possible in democracy. It SEEMS they were able to contain it, but problem is, you cant trust those numbers at all :X

I think for a avarage person, the best thing is to stock a bit on food in advance just because of the panic. Im sure in my country, the panic shopping will even out with the increased supply in 14 days. So it makes sense to have some food for lets say one month. Thats not a huge amount of food, basic food is cheap. In fact, basic food for 30 days costed me the same as my standard food for 3 days... That was interresting realization to me. I spend too much on food :D

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Re: Just a general COVID19 thread - dont open if you not interrested in RL issues

Post by Ommamar »

That might be why there hasn't been any noticeable lack in the stores where I am at as most people buy for at least a month some as much as 3 months at a time. It is a little different now with the expansion of Walmart but the general mind frame of when I was young to buy large portions of food still exists. People no longer have to drive 3-4 hours just to get decent prices for staples but that mind set to stock up really hasn't gone away.

Recession is a definite possibility I have heard a theory of an actual depression but I don't see it going that way. With the loss of production from China I expect a 6 month vacuum of supply that will be filled by European countries and the United States. The question occurs to me will companies realize how bad of an idea it is to be dependent on one country being as you called it the factory of the world? I actually think that once out of the crisis the world economy will be strengthened as companies will build redundancies into their supply and production chains. That could be several years down the road however and likely to be a bumpy ride.

South Korea will be a good source for how the virus will spread in a certain type of area but it is a pretty homogeneous environment with not much variance in its borders. One thing that greatly effects viruses is temperature so if you look at it from a continent viewpoint it would be hard to judge how it will spread when there is such a wide variance of environments based of the data from South Korea. One possibility I could see happening is a large migration to dry hot areas of a country as it is theorized a virus would have a harder time surviving there. Of course people get sick from the flu in the desert so not sure how much trust I would put in that thought path.

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Re: Just a general COVID19 thread - dont open if you not interrested in RL issues

Post by King of Worms »

The question occurs to me will companies realize how bad of an idea it is to be dependent on one country being as you called it the factory of the world? I actually think that once out of the crisis the world economy will be strengthened as companies will build redundancies into their supply and production chains. That could be several years down the road however and likely to be a bumpy ride.
Absolutely agree on this, I hope the dependency on China will be reevaluated - and I believe the crisis is usually a process which makes economy stronger at the end of the day

South Korea will be a good source for how the virus will spread in a certain type of area but it is a pretty homogeneous environment with not much variance in its borders. One thing that greatly effects viruses is temperature so if you look at it from a continent viewpoint it would be hard to judge how it will spread when there is such a wide variance of environments based of the data from South Korea.
Thats right, I have not thought about it in this way
One possibility I could see happening is a large migration to dry hot areas of a country as it is theorized a virus would have a harder time surviving there. Of course people get sick from the flu in the desert so not sure how much trust I would put in that thought path.
Ppl are too lazy for that and the threat is not so huge to make this happen in my opinion. But indeed it seems that dry hot areas might be safer. Usually those areas have lower quality of life and medical care to counter that... but Im quite bad at geography to be certain about it :)

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